Enterprise Risk Management and the Monetary Value of Risk Analysis

Enterprise Risk Management

Increased competition and fluctuations in global markets require a renewed focus on cost-saving initiatives and enterprise risk-management strategies. The Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Energy University Program (NEUP) has awarded Assistant Professor Zahra Mohaghegh and her research team a three-year, $800,000 grant to pursue this research. SoTeRiA Laboratory is developing a Systematic Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) Framework for satisfying short- and long-term Regulatory Design Standards, and short- and long-term for improving safety, cost savings and avoiding production loss. This project offers two paths on how to implement cost reduction and ERM strategies to satisfy the NEI Nuclear Promise while satisfying regulatory requirements. A Systematic ERM will allow users to explore the full range of decision-making options and their associated costs calculated using mixed Cost-Benefit Analysis methods. The results of this project will help utilities bound the risk associated with uncertainty in long-term operational scenarios and risk-informed regulatory activities, and is closely related to cost savings asked for in the “Cost & Benefit” lower tier initiative in the NEI “Delivering the Nuclear Promise” initiative.

 

Monetary Value of Risk Analysis: Industry-Academia Collaboration

The benefits of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) are not only experienced in terms of safety, but also from the monetary value derived from Risk-Informed Performance-Based Applications (RIPBAs), where risk estimated from PRA is utilized in decision-making to expand the safe operational envelope of plants, leading to either an increase in profits or a reduction in costs. The goal of this research is to provide a model-based approach (rather than a solely data-driven approach) to evaluate the monetary benefit of PRA by causal modeling of the net value of RIPBAs.

The SoTeRiA lab has been working with the South Texas Project Nuclear Operating Company (STPNOC) to advance research on the monetary value of PRA. At STPNOC, safety plays a crucial role in all activities, and risk has become a critical part in decision-making for all phases of operation and maintenance. STPNOC data is used to generate an integrated approach, combining aspects of benefit cost analysis and multi-attribute decision-making within the PRA framework. The methodology advances Risk-Informed Decision Making for high-consequence industries (i.e., nuclear, healthcare, aviation, oil and gas), by creating the opportunity to systematically model a course of action and to determine its monetary cost or benefit before a safety-significant change is made, or a problem occurs. The applications of this research will allow managers to consider multiple event sequences of socio-technical system failures, along with critical decision-making points that provide detailed systematic causal models of cost estimations.